Insights Gleaned from Top Economist

      Sarah Watt House
Economist at Wells Fargo Securities
 spoke this morning (January 19, 2017) at the Business Today Newsmakers Breakfast, Cornelius, NC. My interpolations from her insights include:

  • Be ever more careful and reluctant to borrow money to pay for college
  • By exploiting relaxed repayment plans, more students and parents are loan-current, but . . .
  • Employment outlook for college graduates is looking favorable.
Borrowing Be Reluctant
Federal Student Aid and the Parent Loan for Undergraduate Students (PLUS Loan) are linked to the Treasury Bill rate. Inflation is rising, interest rates are rising, and each (more than likely) shall continue to rise. Although Federal loans are at a fixed interest rate, that rate is adjusted annually (linked to the T-Bill rate) for each new installment.

In other words, assuming you graduate in four years, you do so with four different loans, each carrying its own interest rate. As T-Bill rates rise, so will each, successive year's loan rate. If you enter college depending on borrowing as your primary means of paying, you may find yourself, financially, between-a-rock-and-a-hard-spot before you complete your degree.

I recommend that no parent use PLUS. If you do not see how you can send your child without that, please contact me. I may be able to help you discover alternatives (usually; but not always call me and let's talk).

Pros/Cons of Repayment Plans
According to Ms. House more students are utilizing the federal IBR (Income-Based Repayment) plans [https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/understand/plans/income-driven]. The upside is that your debt-service is more manageable, relating to your income. The down side is that, often, repayment is stretched out over many, many years. That impacts debt-to-income credit worthiness when you are seeking a loan for a major consumer purchase (house and car, in particular).

There are also possibilities for student loan forgiveness based on tightly defined public service jobs. Although an option, remember that any amount forgiven is 1099'd in the year forgiven, and creates a tax-obligation for which you may be unprepared. I know a woman who successfully applied for forgiveness of over $100, 000 (one hundred thousand!) in student debt. She was elated until, the following January, the 1099 came in the mail. Her income for the previous year jumped from under $30,000 to more than $130,000 with the consequent income tax due by April 15.

Employment Outlook
Sarah is confident that employment outlook for college graduates is good, and shall remain so, at least in 2017, if not beyond. Good news for sure!

My caveat to that is, depending on your degree and planned career, not all job markets are equal. At the breakfast where Sarah spoke I was sitting with a gentleman whose 11th grader was thinking of either a degree in business or a law degree. My advice to him was to check the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment forecasts for specific professions, trades and industries. If the family heeds my advice the choice of majors will be resolved, I feel confident.

Posted in College Planning, College Planning Strategies.